Player positions: GK = Goalkeeper, D = Defender, M = Midfielder, F = Forward
Sum of all player probabilities: 2600%
Ideal sum for 23-man roster: 2300%
Ideal sum for 26-man roster: 2600%
The market is well calibrated for a roster size between 23 and 26 players.
The sum of all player probabilities is currently 2600%.
For a 26-man roster, the ideal sum would be exactly 2600%, since exactly 26 players will make the roster.
For a 23-man roster, the ideal sum would be exactly 2300%.
For a 26-man roster, users would need to knock a combined 0% off of the current probabilities.
For a 23-man roster, users would need to knock a combined 300% off of the current probabilities.
To calibrate the market for a 26-man roster, each player's probability would need to be multiplied by 1.00.
To calibrate for a 23-man roster, each probability would need to be multiplied by 0.88.
Curious about the final roster size? What will be the roster size for the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Note: Data is loaded when the page is opened. To see updated probabilities after placing bets, please refresh the page.
This is Charlie's attempt to make his USMNT World Cup Roster Prediction Market a thing.
As of writing this, not really. It has only received about $12USD in trades. And yet, it's still the most rigorous attempt that I know of to quantify who will be on this historic roster.
Honestly yes, especially with sportsbooks. However, this prediction market is hosted on Manifold Markets, which uses play internet money that you can't cash out. So it's more like gambling with Reddit karma. As of writing this, you can move the percentages significantly just by using the "Mana" you get by signing up. Moreover, while sportsbooks set unfavorable odds to take your money and restrict your account if you're actually good at predicting, prediction markets operate simply as a intermediate between users. There's no "House" conspiring against you.
That's fine! Prediction markets actually have two types of customers. 1: The degenerates who bet on them and 2. The casuals who get information from the results of the bets. You don't have to bet on events to get value out of them. Just sit back and watch Sebastian Berhalter overtake Pulisic as the brightest star in the USMNT Roster pool.
FIFA expanded rosters to 26 players for the 2022 World Cup, up from the traditional 23. While no official announcement has been made for 2026 yet, you can see what the market thinks: What will be the roster size for the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
I'm glad you asked. I have a MLS Newcomer market here: [MLS Rumor Mill] What newcomers will make an appearance for a Major League Soccer team in 2025?
There's also Who will be the next Ballon d'Or winner to play in MLS?
I think most online communities would benefit if at least some percentage of their members were prediction market-pilled.
Wild speculation is objectively entertaining, but at some point it would be nice if we could actually have a place where we could more formally evaluate who actually knows what they're talking about. Prediction markets solve this by forcing folks to put their (fake in this case) money where their mouth is.
The average internet user is extremely and justifiable jaded about anything that sounds vaguely like gambling or crypto, myself included. This is a small attempt to humbly submit that there is a tiny corner of the internet where the whole "gambling + weird fake money" degeneracy thing can actually have positive externalities.
Market Comments
Expanding on the original resolution criteria:
FIFA's final squad submission deadline is
June 1
, with FIFA publishing the official lists
June 2
— that's the list this market resolves against, per the original criteria. So in the unlikely event of a friendly-camp injury between now and June 1 that forces a swap, the swapped-in player resolves YES and the dropped player resolves NO.
Anything AFTER the June 1 deadline (in-tournament injury replacements, etc.) doesn't count — original 26 stays YES, replacements NO. Planning to resolve on/around June 2 once FIFA publishes.
Mauricio Pochettino keeping tabs on ex-MLS MVP ahead of potential USMNT switch - The Mirror US
Zack Steffen: GK
Ethan Horvath: GK
Sean Johnson: GK
Brandon Vázquez: F
Patrick Schulte: GK
Quinn Sullivan: M
Alex Freeman: D
• Marlon Fossey
• (Standard Liège)
• Auston Trusty
• (Celtic)
• Tanner Tessmann
• (Olympique Lyon)
• Patrick Agyemang
• (Charlotte FC)
• Brian White
• (Vancouver Whitecaps FC)
• Patrick Schulte
• (Columbus Crew)